Insights
Dispatches from the deep.
Notes on decision intelligence — how we find the consistently right, prove it, and compound it. Field reports from building OrcaIQ.
Wisdom of the Wise vs. Wisdom of the Crowd
Crowd aggregation produces consensus. Source identification produces edge. Why the distinction matters for every decision system.
Read more →Why Prediction Markets Are a Timing Benchmark, Not a Signal
Kalshi and Polymarket don't tell you what will happen. They tell you when the crowd figured it out, and the more valuable question is who knew before that.
Read more →Game Theory in the AI Era
AI makes analysis abundant. The scarce capability becomes judgment about incentives, sources, and how everyone else's AI changes the game.
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